The Colorado River’s two largest reservoirs, Lakes Mead and Powell, have hit record lows this month, pushing the system toward deadpool levels where water can no longer flow downstream. The crisis is driven by decades of over-allocation, record-warm winters, and critically low snowpack in the Upper Basin states that feed the river.
A historically strong El Niño is expected to bring wetter conditions to the Southwest this winter, offering temporary relief. Forecasters note El Niño reliably increases precipitation in Southern California, Arizona, and New Mexico, but its impact on the Upper Basin—where snowmelt replenishes the river—is uncertain. The last comparable El Niño in 2015-16 delivered only normal snowfall to the Upper Basin, and current climate trends make snowpack even less reliable.
Even a record snow year wouldn’t resolve the river’s structural problems, experts say. The century-old water rights compact expires at year’s end, and states have missed deadlines to renegotiate allocations. Climate change is projected to shrink the river’s flow by up to 30 percent by 2050, leaving the region facing a slow-motion disaster that no single weather event can reverse.
