University of Edinburgh epidemiologists have released a catalog that ranks the 239 known human‑infecting RNA viruses according to their pandemic potential. The list separates viruses that rarely transmit between people—mostly zoonotic pathogens—from those already capable of human‑to‑human spread.
While most newly discovered viruses cause little concern, past crises such as HIV‑1 and SARS‑CoV‑2 show that RNA viruses can trigger global emergencies. The catalog highlights high‑risk groups, including bird flu, Ebola, Zika, chikungunya, mpox and Andes hantavirus, many of which have already generated regional outbreaks. It also notes that viruses with low basic reproduction numbers can become more dangerous when they reach densely populated areas, as illustrated by the 2014 Zaire ebolavirus epidemic.
By mapping traits like transmissibility and disease severity, the database aims to help scientists spot a “disease X” candidate early, potentially shortening the window before a virus spreads worldwide. The authors argue that faster detection and understanding could dramatically reduce the health and economic toll of future pandemics.
