Michael Swaine, a national security expert, has reassessed the possibility of armed conflict between the US and China. In 2024, he identified areas that could increase the likelihood of war, and two years later, he revisits his arguments after recent talks between President Trump and President Xi.
Swaine notes that the US involvement in Iran has depleted its arsenal of precision land-attack munitions but has also shown the ability to overcome Russian and Chinese-designed missile defense systems.
Despite these developments, the overall negative dynamic regarding Taiwan remains unchanged, with a steady erosion of the original understanding that has kept the peace in the Taiwan Strait for decades. Beijing is likely committed to its strategy toward achieving unification with Taiwan without resorting to kinetic military actions.
