A recent study used wargames to explore the effectiveness of deterrence in cyberspace. The study found that cyber operations can be deterred, but states are often reluctant to try. The researchers used a game called Tantalus, which allows players to select an initial action and then receive deterrent threats from other players. This creates a window between planned action and action execution, allowing researchers to see the moment when a player chooses to stand down due to a deterrent threat.
The study analyzed data from 394 games and 1,090 players, finding that cyber threats are less effective than nuclear threats in leading a player to revise their previous course of action. However, the study also found that actors do not appear to treat cyberspace differently when assessing deterrent threats, and that cyber operations can be deterred just as effectively as conventional kinetic attacks.
The researchers suggest that states may be leaving a working tool on the table by not using deterrence in their cyber strategy. They argue that deterrence deserves a more prominent place in cyber strategy, and that states should not treat cyber operations as an inevitability.
