A new report from the Anti-Corruption Data Collective identifies 152 accounts—dubbed 'orcas'—that placed $2 million on high-risk military bets on Polymarket and won 97.2% of the time, netting $8 million. Researchers suspect these accounts are linked to military insiders, citing their unusual accuracy and behavior patterns, such as placing first bets on confidential operations.
The collective analyzed orca accounts, which spent less overall than other bettors but achieved a 132% return, compared to losses as high as -2% for others. Their bets often preceded market-wide trends, including a series of longshot wagers ahead of U.S. strikes on Iran in March 2025. The report warns that public blockchain visibility and cryptocurrency tools could expose sensitive military information to adversaries.
The findings follow recent arrests of military personnel in the U.S. and Israel for alleged insider betting. In April, a U.S. Army Master Sgt. was charged with making over $400,000 in related bets, while an Israeli airman faces charges for using classified information. The report recommends Polymarket require government-issued identification to curb suspicious activity.
