African terrorist groups, such as al-Qaida and Islamic State affiliates, are increasing their capabilities and gaining ground across the continent. The Center for Strategic and International Studies warns that terrorism on the continent is the greatest uncertainty, with groups like Al Shabaab and the Islamic State West Africa Province posing significant threats.
These groups are capitalizing on emerging technologies like unmanned aerial systems and artificial intelligence to enhance their operations. The US has reduced its military footprint in Africa by 75%, creating an intelligence black hole and compromising its ability to respond to crises.
The US has focused its counterterrorism strategy on Somalia and Nigeria, with increased air and drone strikes, but the reduced military presence raises concerns about the ability to counter the growing terrorist threat. The future of how terrorists and counterterrorists will act against each other is increasingly unclear due to the pace of technological change.
